Course Overview
This course introduces students to the complexities of geopolitical risk, focusing on its causes, manifestations, and implications for decision-making in government, business, and civil society. The objective is to equip students with analytical tools to assess and respond to evolving geopolitical challenges, such as regional conflicts, global power shifts, resource competition, and the intersection of geopolitics with technology and climate change.
Learning Outcomes
By the end of this course, students will be able to:
1. Define and identify key elements of geopolitical risk.
2. Analyze geopolitical trends and assess their implications for different sectors.
3. Apply risk assessment frameworks to real-world scenarios.
4. Evaluate mitigation strategies and develop actionable recommendations.
5. Understand the role of technology, climate change, and international organizations in shaping geopolitical landscapes.
Course Content
Week 1: Foundations of Geopolitical Risk
• Day 1: Introduction to Geopolitical Risk
o Defining geopolitical risk, measurement techniques and key concepts
o Historical overview and key drivers
o Class Discussion: The Cuban Missile Crisis
• Day 2: Global Power Shifts and Multipolarity
o Rise of China and the decline of unipolarity
o Regional powers and their influence
o Class Discussion: China-US conflict – The East challenges the West
• Day 3: Regional Conflicts and their Global Implications
o Middle East tensions, Ukraine conflict
o Proxy wars and their global spillover
o Class Discussion: Regional conflicts
• Day 4: Resource Competition and Energy Security
o Oil, gas, and rare earth elements
o Arctic geopolitics and maritime chokepoints
o Class Discussion: The Geopolitics of Energy
• Day 5: Non-State Actors and Hybrid Warfare
o Terrorism, cyber threats, and economic coercion
o Class discussion: Technology and global conflicts
Week 2: Advanced Topics and Practical Applications
• Day 6: Technology and Geopolitics
o AI, cybersecurity, and space exploration
o Class discussion: AI superpowers
• Day 7: Climate Change and Geopolitical Risk
o Environmental security
o Class discussion: Fast fashion and environment
• Day 8: International Institutions and Risk Mitigation
o UN, NATO, and regional organizations
o Effectiveness and limitations in conflict resolution
o Class discussion: Role of international organizations
• Day 9: Risk Assessment Frameworks
o Methodologies for geopolitical risk analysis
o Class Workshop: Applying frameworks to a live geopolitical event
• Day 10: Strategic Responses and Policy Recommendations
o Corporate strategies for geopolitical risk management
o Governmental approaches to mitigation
o Final Project: Presenting a geopolitical risk analysis
Instructional Method
• Lectures: Daily discussions with case study integration.
• Workshops: Hands-on sessions to apply risk assessment tools.
• Group Project: Collaborative assignments to analyze ongoing geopolitical scenarios.
Required Course Materials
• Geopolitical Risk Index: https://www.matteoiacoviello.com/gpr.htm
•Geopolitical Risk Dashboard: https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/insights/blackrock-investment-institute/interactive-charts/geopolitical-risk-dashboard
• Economic Policy Index: https://www.policyuncertainty.com/gpr.html
• Top Geopolitical Risks of 2024: https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/market-insights/geopolitical-risk
• Back to Bipolarity: How China's Rise Transformed the Balance of Power: https://direct.mit.edu/isec/article/49/2/7/125214/Back-to-Bipolarity-How-China-s-Rise-Transformed
• Walter Russell Mead: The Return of Geopolitics: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4M8UxV9Zmq0
• Commentary - Could the United States and China really go to war? Who would win?: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/could-the-united-states-and-china-really-go-to-war-who-would-win/
• Ukraine crisis: Timeline: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-26248275
• Syria Timeline: Since the Uprising Against Assad: https://www.usip.org/syria-timeline-uprising-against-assad
• The Geopolitics of Energy Project: https://www.belfercenter.org/programs/geopolitics-energy-project
• Cyber Threat Landscape Report: https://www.unicc.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/2023-Cyber-Threat-Landscape-Report-v2.pdf
• Artificial Intelligence and National Security: https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/artificial-intelligence-and-national-security
• Climate Change and National Security: https://www.cfr.org/report/climate-change-and-national-security
Assessment
1. Class Participation (10%): Active engagement in discussions.
2. Case Study Analysis (20%): Written report on a geopolitical risk scenario.
3. Group Project (30%): Presentation and report on a live geopolitical risk.
4. Quizzes (20%): Weekly assessments on course readings and lectures.
5. Final Exam (20%): Cumulative test covering all topics discussed.